Testing and dating of structural changes in practice hartford photo personals dating gay connecticut
We do use the full age range between age 0 and 85 in our main analysis as this age range is the basis for computing life expectancy at birth that is of main interest for many applications, but checked the sensitivity of our results if the sample was restricted to more narrow age ranges.) to estimate the fraction of mortality attributable to smoking.Here, the basic idea is that the total cumulative damage of past smoking on all causes of death could be indirectly inferred from observed lung-cancer mortality rates.One possible explanation for the presence of structural breaks in mortality trends is the distorting impact of the progression of the tobacco epidemic that affected male mortality trends mainly during the 1970s and 1980s, i.e., the periods in which many of the structural breaks were detected (Janssen et al. After adjusting for the distorting effects of smoking, trends in male life expectancy were more linear over time, more similar between the countries, and closer to the already more linear trends of females (Bongaarts ).Further, a recent study documented that the smoking prevalence in 10 countries was negatively correlated with both the compression of the age-at-death distribution and the delay of aging (Janssen et al.Nevertheless, it is unknown in which cases these models should be preferred to simpler models not taking into account the impact of smoking, and whether other factors behind the irregular mortality trend might have been overlooked.To fill this gap in knowledge, the present study examines to what extent structural breaks in the central time trend of the LC model in high-income countries were indeed caused by the impact of smoking.This study tests whether the impact of the tobacco epidemic explains the structural changes in mortality decline, as it is presumed in earlier studies.For this purpose, the time index of the Lee-Carter model in males was investigated in 20 developed countries between 19 for possible structural changes.
Further, we obtained sex and age-specific lung-cancer death rates for the age groups (35–40, …, 80–84, 85 years) from the WHO mortality database on causes of death, as input for the indirect estimation of smoking-attributable mortality (World Health Organization ).
An increasing number of countries exhibited more irregular mortality trends in the past decades, including the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Australia and the USA (Nusselder and Mackenbach ).
In the presence of such nonlinearity, past trends do not provide a solid basis for extrapolation and the resulting projections become more volatile and particularly sensitive to the selection of the historical period (Peters et al. To develop better projection models, knowledge on the underlying determinants responsible for the structural breaks is required.
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Thereby, we focus on male mortality trends, where the impact of the smoking epidemic already peaked in most countries, while it is generally still increasing among females, so that structural changes due to smoking might occur more likely in the future.